kalshi and polymarket are about to make election nights even more stressful
ALSO: women aren't working in AI, Dems reckon with Woke 1, how to "coatmaxx" for fall, and more
Happy Tuesday, August 18th!
FYSA, every Tuesday and Friday, I’ll be in your inbox with the latest in politics, tech & social media, culture, and other relevant topics – and I’ll share some notes and tips on what I’m keeping my eye on.
And finally, if you enjoy this newsletter and want to share it with your network (and/or your chronically online friends), or buy me a matcha, that would be so appreciated 🙏
How AOC is rewriting her own “Woke 1” history
Ocasio-Cortez is far from the only Democratic politician who wants voters to forget about their past cultural positions from the early 2020s. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said last year that “not one person ever in my office has ever used the word Latinx,” though he repeatedly did so in 2020. Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, meanwhile, have walked back their past support for defunding the police. (Axios, 8/16)
Lucy’s note: I really don’t think “re-writing” is the right framing here (although it probably gets more clicks). Politicians will always have a different perspective after years pass (not saying they can’t be judged for whatever they changed to or from, just that it’s super normal) – it’s also probably much better than the alternative of a leader that never learns or changes.
Democrats finalize 2028 calendar that moves racially diverse states to the front
South Carolina will kick off the sprint to Super Tuesday under the plan that packs six primaries into six weeks. After that contest on Jan. 22, Democrats will head to Nevada on Feb. 1, New Hampshire on Feb. 8, New Mexico on Feb. 15, Michigan on Feb. 22 and Virginia on Feb. 29. (POLITICO, 8/15)
Kindergarten vaccine exemptions jump to another record high
The share of U.S. kindergartners with exemptions from school vaccine requirements for the 2025-2026 school year rose to another record high, according to federal data posted Monday. The sharp increase from 3.6 to 4.2 percent seeking exemptions — about 155,000 students — extends a years-long erosion of childhood immunization rates as the country battles its worst measles resurgence in 35 years. (WaPo, 8/17 – free version)
James Talarico Poaches Cornyn Staffer
“That is unheard of,” said the operative, who’s worked on Senate races, about a move at that level. Cornyn’s defeat set off alarm bells among Republicans who believe that Paxton’s personal baggage — including his indictment for fraud, impeachment and extramarital affair — could put a safe seat in jeopardy and give Democrats another path to winning the Senate. He dodged a criminal trial by agreeing to community service. (Semafor, 8/17)
Election Officials Are Preparing for Prediction Markets to Sow Chaos in the Midterms
One of the concerns election officials repeatedly raised was that voters appear to be confused about just what the odds in election markets represent. This was backed up by a recent survey conducted by the Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions, which found that 75 percent of respondents were unable to correctly say what prediction market odds represented, with 35 percent of respondents claiming they were either counted votes or official projections from state officials. (WIRED, 8/17 – free version)
OpenAI Introduces ‘ChatGPT for Teens’ as Safety Concerns Grow
The chatbot will limit high-risk conversations that involve self-harm, violence, eating disorders, and explicit sexual and graphic content. In some cases, ChatGPT will alert adults who have opted in to parental controls and notifications. And the mode will strengthen protections that prevent the chatbot from suggesting it has personal feelings. (NYT gift link, 8/18)
Brand marketers are adopting fan-first social media strategies
According to Sesto, the brand’s “fans” act as evangelists for its fizzy qualities online, amplifying its content while also providing a source for social listening and trend observation, and a quick-acting focus group rooting its product development in real consumer connection. It’s a methodology that requires a keen understanding of consumers’ lives, and their media habits. (Digiday, 8/17)
Women are missing out on the AI jobs boom
Women made up just over a quarter of new hires in the U.S. for AI roles last year — compared with half of new hires in non-AI occupations, per new LinkedIn data out Tuesday morning. These jobs are some of the fastest-growing and highest-paying in the country right now — at a time when the overall labor market is pretty sluggish — and the report shows women are getting left behind. Men landed 74%, and women 26%, of the new hires for AI roles in 2025. (Axios, 8/18)
Lucy’s note: I do wonder if/how much of this is women being more dissuaded by the myriad of ethical issues that AI companies prevent (to say nothing about tech culture generally).
Pickle Flavor Is Taking Over the Snack Aisle
According to Circana’s data, pickle-flavored snacks grew 30% in sales over the past year, compared with a 3.8% growth in the snack category overall. The same goes for categories that don’t seem traditionally fermentation-forward: Pickle-flavored trail mix grew by 10%, as opposed to 4% for the general category. (WSJ gift link, 8/14)
“Coatmaxxing” Is Fall 2026’s Hottest Outerwear Trend
It girls (and guys) are taking up arms... and throwing on decorative military jackets. A relic from the 2010s indie sleaze era, the militant uniform first made its way back onto fashion’s radar after the likes of McQueen, Ann Demeulemeester, and Vaquera sent versions down the Spring 2026 runways. Even more brands adopted the look for their fall shows, adding buttons, ropes, and other looped details that make it downright Napoleonic. The 2026 styling, though, is a lot more subdued and less ready for battle than previous eras. (Bustle, 8/17)
Lucy’s note: a bit of a Tl;DR… we’re basically 2016-ing once again
Lake Powell, nation’s second-largest reservoir, hits record-low level
Sharon Megdal, the director of the Water Resources Research Center (WRRC) at the University of Arizona, called the situation a “natural disaster” and compared it to a savings account. She said the demand for water acts like a withdrawal, and the drought and reduced snowpack limit the deposits you can pull from the savings when times are tough. (ABC News, 8/16)
The books devoted readers are picking up this summer
(WaPo, 8/17 – free version)
There Are Over 1 Million N.Y.C. Street Signs. Here’s How They Are Made.
Even in a digital age, the Maspeth Central Shop in Queens is still cutting, printing and assembling more than 70,000 municipal signs a year, from the street-cleaning signs found in every neighborhood to the big green signs directing traffic on major highways. The sign shop, which is part of the New York City Department of Transportation, has a staff of 46 workers, including seven letterers who lay out signs by hand and a blacksmith who makes custom brackets to securely attach signs to traffic poles. (NYT gift link, 8/15)
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Extra Credit 🤓
Substacks That Really Substacked This Week 🤌
The Lakers Are a Massive Bet on AI Disruption from Eben Novy-Williams of Club Sportico
I’ve got teen fever from Marley Wendt of i-D
Sneaky Links
TL;DR I’ve inexplicably started receiving codes to stuff… here are the things I actually like :)
My BNTO code for August is LC7QE5 for $20 off (if you know me IRL, you know my rant about the Nuulification of the 20-something city dweller)
I also have a code for CampSnap??? And I do love my CS8 camera from them but like I don’t think I said that online? Either way, it’s LUCYR7 for 7% off
That’s all for now – I’ll see you on Friday!